We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. This county voted with the popular vote each time. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Watch Hampton City. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Enter Donald Trump. 8. In their . In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. 2016 Election (1135) When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Here's why. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . TIP: The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Seriously. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Sumter County, . Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! All other 21 counties voted Republican. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. In communities . In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. What science tells us about the afterlife. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. But that's no longer the case. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Demographics (84) President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. That's 14 in a row. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Team up with others in your region, and help out by David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Their hopes are real. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. First, what are bellwether counties? Not anymore. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Read about our approach to external linking. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The divisions were everywhere. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via (Go to the bottom of the page. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. 10. There are 391 such counties. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. It's the wrong question. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. 6. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). The matters that way on their minds are real. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. But it's also not unprecedented. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. What results did you discover? Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred.
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